Essentially, the futures markets are still hedging on the idea that this war might end and normal trade might resume pretty soon, a position encouraged by the current administration, which claims it has been negotiating with Iran (Iran denied the claim). The tricky thing here is that this is a war between two governments – the Trump administration and the Iranian regime – which both have a clear record of lying a lot. The Trump administration has, for instance, repeatedly claimed a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia was imminent, and that war remains ongoing. The markets are thus forced to try and guess everyone’s actions and intentions from statements that are unreliable. Cards on the table, I think the markets are underestimating the likelihood that this conflict continues for some time. Notably, the United States is moving assets into theater – an MEU, elements of the 82 Airborne – which will take some time to arrive (two weeks for the MEU which is still about a week out as I write this) and set up for operations.
关于霍尔木兹海峡的安保形势，阿拉格齐表示此类危机完全由美以军事挑衅引发。伊朗作为主权国家，有权禁止敌对势力及其同盟的舰艇通行。目前伊朗相关机构已实施必要管控，既维护了国家海洋权益，又确保了航道安全，有效遏制了敌对力量利用该海域进行侵略行径。。关于这个话题，谷歌浏览器提供了深入分析
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